If The Bull Market Turns Bear, Is Your Portfolio On The Right Cycle?
The current bull market – at 10 years and counting – is the longest in the nation’s history. But instead of celebrating that longevity, plenty of people are worried about how much longer the good times can last, and whether we could be headed for a recession.
What does that mean for investors fretting that the next bear market will devastate their investment portfolios?
For one thing, those investors might want to ask themselves whether the stocks they are invested in are cyclical or non-cyclical, says Dr. Joseph Belmonte, an investment strategist and author of Buffett and Beyond: Uncovering the Secret Ratio for Superior Stock Selection (www.buffettandbeyond.com).
The answer could be critical, he says, because cyclical stocks perform well when the economy is humming along, but struggle when things turn sour. That’s largely because cyclical stocks are companies that provide something that’s not essential to daily living or that consumers can at least postpone purchasing.
“Sometimes a cyclical stock will begin to decline nine months before the market begins to weaken because of a pending recession,” Dr. Belmonte says.
Examples are stocks for companies such as car manufacturers, higher-end retail stores, and mortgage companies. Specific examples are Ford, General Motors, Caterpillar and Macy's.
Non-cyclical stocks, on the other hand, are the stores or companies people flock to for bargains when times grow tough. Some of these stocks are Dollar Tree, Costco and Ross Stores.
But for investors, just knowing the answer to the cyclical, non-cyclical question is not enough, Dr. Belmonte says. They still need to review a company’s numbers.
“If properly used, the numbers will tell us almost everything we need to know about a company,” he says. “If we use the correct numbers in the correct way, the bottom-line results will tell us which companies we want in our portfolio.”
The problem, Dr. Belmonte says, is that most analysts and investors use the wrong numbers when trying to decide whether a stock is a good or not-so-good option.
A comparable method of measuring the efficiency of a company's operations. That’s why Dr. Belmonte is a proponent of what’s known as clean surplus accounting. He says the most prominent investor who uses this method is Warren Buffett. Here’s a quick overview of how clean surplus accounting works:
With a potential recession looming on the horizon, Dr. Belmonte says, it’s vital that you review your portfolio, examine whether you have cyclical or non-cyclical stocks, and then put those companies to the clean surplus accounting test.
About Dr. Joseph Belmonte
Dr. Joseph Belmonte, author of Buffett and Beyond: Uncovering the Secret Ratio for Superior Stock Selection (www.buffettandbeyond.com), is an investment strategist and stock market consultant. He is fond of saying, “If you want to live on the beach like Jimmy Buffett, you've got to learn how to invest like Warren Buffett.” Dr. Belmonte has developed hedged growth income strategies for family offices, and has lectured to numerous professional and investment groups throughout the country. His weekly video newsletter is sent to thousands of investors, money managers, and academics both nationally and internationally.
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Sprouts Healthy Communities Foundation Accepting
Local Health and Wellness Grant Applications Now Through May 31
PHOENIX, Ariz. – April 1, 2019 – The Sprouts Healthy Communities Foundation is now accepting online applications for its annual Neighborhood Grant program available to local nonprofit partners that support children’s health and nutrition education programs. Organizations can visit sprouts.com/neighborhoodgrants to apply through May 31.
“Through Neighborhood Grants, we’re working to shift the landscape of health by focusing on programs that empower children with the access, knowledge, confidence and desire to make healthier food choices so that they can grow up to become healthier adults,” said Lyndsey Waugh, executive director of the Sprouts Healthy Communities Foundation. “The nearly 200 local grant recipients that have received funding since the Foundation was formed in 2015 are key partners in helping to achieve our mission of changing how children understand nutrition.”
Last year, the Foundation awarded 85 Neighborhood Grants totaling $550,000, supported by in-store roundup campaigns and funds from the Foundation. 2018 partner program highlights include:
Sprouts shoppers can support local organizations in their communities between April 21 and May 1 by participating in the in-store register round up donating change from their visits.
About the Sprouts Healthy Communities Foundation
The Sprouts Healthy Communities Foundation was founded in 2015 to drive lasting change in the health of the communities in which Sprouts operates. To date, the Foundation has donated more than $7 million to 260 nonprofits supporting health and wellness related causes. By supporting these programs nationwide that broaden access to health and nutrition education, the Foundation empowers individuals to live healthier lives. Sprouts covers 100 percent of the Foundation’s operational expenses, ensuring every dollar raised goes directly to programs.
About Sprouts Farmers Market
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. specializes in fresh, natural and organic products at prices that appeal to everyday grocery shoppers. Based on the belief that healthy food should be affordable, Sprouts’ welcoming environment and knowledgeable team members continue to drive its growth. Sprouts offers a complete shopping experience that includes an array of fresh produce in the heart of the store, a deli with prepared entrees and side dishes, The Butcher Shop and The Fish Market at Sprouts, an expansive vitamins and supplements department and more. Headquartered in Phoenix, Ariz., Sprouts employs more than 30,000 team members and operates more than 300 stores in 19 states from coast to coast. Visit about.sprouts.com for more information.
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(Washington, D.C., April 1, 2019) – U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue will be in Indiana TOMORROW, Tuesday, April 2nd to participate in a dialogue at Purdue University, visit the National FFA Center, and tour Second Helpings, Inc.
*NOTE: Media interested in attending any event must RSVP to press@oc.usda.gov by TODAY, Monday, April 1st at 5:00 p.m. ET.
WHAT: Secretary Perdue will participate in a dialogue and audience Q&A session with the President of Purdue University, Mitch Daniels. Following the event, Secretary Perdue will hold a media availability.
WHEN: TOMORROW, Tuesday, April 2nd beginning at 9:00am ET.
WHERE: Stewart Center, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907
WHAT: Secretary Perdue will visit the National FFA Center. Following the visit, Secretary Perdue will hold the media availability.
WHEN: TOMORROW, Tuesday, April 2nd beginning at 12:45pm ET.
WHERE: National FFA Center, 6060 FFA Drive, Indianapolis, IN 46268
WHAT: Secretary Perdue will visit Second Helpings, Inc, an Employment and Training (E&T) site. Following the visit, Secretary Perdue will hold a media availability.
WHEN: TOMORROW, Tuesday, April 2nd beginning at 2:30pm ET.
WHERE: Second Helpings, Inc., The Eugene and Marilyn Glick Center, 1121 Southeastern Ave., Indianapolis, IN 46202
USDA Gathers Data about On-Farm Labor
LAKEWOOD, Colo. – April 1, 2019 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will conduct its biannual Agricultural Labor Survey during the second half of April. The survey will collect information about hired labor from more than 3500 farmers and ranchers in the Mountain Region states of Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. “The beginning of the year is the time when agricultural producers plan out the rest of their growing seasons and it is a great time to assess on-farm labor needs,” said William Meyer, Director, Mountain Regional Field Office. “The data that farm operators provide through NASS’s Agricultural Labor Survey allow federal policymakers to base farm labor policies on accurate information.” USDA and the U.S. Department of Labor use statistics gathered in the Agricultural Labor Survey to establish minimum wage rates for agricultural workers, administer farm labor recruitment and placement service programs, and assist legislators in determining labor policies. In the survey, NASS asks participants to answer a variety of questions about hired farm labor on their operations, including total number of hired farm workers, the total hours worked, base wage rate, and total gross wages paid for the weeks of January 6-12 and April 7-13. For their convenience, survey participants have the option to respond online. “By asking about two separate time periods each time we collect data during the year, we are able to publish quarterly data and capture seasonal variation,” said Meyer. “This approach reduces the number of times we survey farm businesses while ensuring that accurate and timely data are available.” As with all NASS surveys, the results of this survey will be available in aggregate form only, ensuring that no individual operation or producer can be identified. NASS will compile, analyze, and publish survey results in the May 30 Farm Labor report. These and all NASS reports are available online at http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/
For state specific questions please contact: Arizona – Dave DeWalt 1-800-645-7286 Colorado – William R. Meyer 1-800-392-3202 Montana – Eric Sommer 1-800-835-2612 New Mexico – Longino Bustillos 1-800-530-8810 Utah – John Hilton 1-800-747-8522 Wyoming – Rhonda Brandt 1-800-892-1660
### Stein Eriksen Lodge Real Estate and Chateaux Realty Merge to Establish Stein Eriksen Realty Group
PARK CITY, Utah (March 27, 2019) – The world-renowned Stein Collection announces the Stein Eriksen Realty Group, a merger and expansion of Stein Eriksen Lodge Real Estate and Chateaux Realty. The newly launched boutique, luxury real estate brokerage will specialize in serving the owners and guests of Stein Collection properties, which is comprised of more than $500 million worth of privately-owned, luxury real estate at Stein Eriksen Lodge, The Chateaux Deer Valley, The Residences at The Chateaux, and the new Stein Eriksen Residences. Stein Eriksen Realty Group will also represent buyers and sellers in the greater Deer Valley and Park City areas, and beyond.
“We are thrilled to introduce Stein Eriksen Realty Group to our Stein Collection family and the Park City community,” said Kristen Barber, Principal Broker of Stein Eriksen Realty Group. “Uniting the exceptional real estate offerings and skilled brokerage teams of Stein Eriksen Lodge Real Estate and Chateaux Realty—coupled with the addition of local, top-performing Agents—allows us to provide the finest selection of privately-owned properties and the highest level of guest service in luxury real estate.”
Offering “Legendary Real Estate Services throughout Deer Valley and Park City,” Stein Eriksen Realty Group will cater to its approximately 300 homeowners and other clients, as well as the thousands of guests that pass through the Stein Collection properties each day.
“What really sets us apart is the exposure to those thousands of guests that pass through Stein Collection doors each day,” says Greg Gendron, Vice President of Residential Operations for Stein Collection. “That level of access gives our clients and agents an unrivaled, competitive advantage in the marketplace.”
The experienced brokerage team includes Kristen Barber, Principal Broker; Sara Werbelow, Associate Broker, Past President of the Park City Board of Realtors, Past Chair of the Park City Chamber, and 2018 Realtor of the Year; and Melissa Band, Associate Broker, Past Chair of the Park City Planning Commission, and Chair of the Park City Board of Realtors Legislative Committee. The merger of these two brokerages is complemented by two new agents: Jeff Spencer, Associate Broker and Past President of the Board of Realtors; Beth McMahon, Senior Agent; and a talented team of Junior Agents.
Stein Eriksen Realty Group offices are located slope-side at Deer Valley Resort at Stein Eriksen Lodge (7700 Steins Way) and The Chateaux Deer Valley (7815 Royal Street East).
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5 Outdated IT Practices That Companies
Need To Eliminate
Technology changes nearly as quickly as the calendar flips. A new device or upgrade that was trending not long ago may become antiquated or obsolete before you know it.
Information technology is integral to most businesses today, but keeping up with the interrelated parts of IT and the advancements – from software to cyber security to social media platforms – isn’t always prioritized. IT experts say companies falling behind in that category could see their business slip as a result.
“Over the last several years, many IT practices have become fixed and inflexible,” says Chris Hoose (www.choosenetworks.com), an IT consultant who works with small businesses. “While older concepts are a good springboard, some have become ineffective. There are many you can reconsider and/or eliminate.”
Hoose looks at five IT practices he thinks businesses should stop using:
Outdated software. One of the biggest security vulnerabilities a company can face is one of the simplest to address: outdated software. “There are many risks associated with using unsupported or outdated software, and hackers love to exploit these gaps,” Hoose says. “Then there are the inevitable problems of a system failure or antiquated workflows that slow a company’s productivity. Although upgrading software – including your operating systems – can be time-consuming and expensive, doing so can safeguard your organization and create more room for innovations.”
In-house server hosting. Much of today’s modern software is hosted in the cloud. “Most cloud vendors are able to provide public, private or hybrid cloud hosting based on your requirements,” Hoose says. “With such extensive cloud capability, there is no reason anymore to rely on in-house server hosting. Migrating to these versions can not only help save your business the costs of purchasing and maintaining software, but also the costs of maintenance and upkeep on servers.” Another plus of cloud computing is the added security of cloud disaster recovery, a backup and restore capability that enables companies to recover data and switch to a secondary operational mode.
Inflexible work environment. The new wave of the workforce is an IT strategy that includes video cameras and laptops for team members to facilitate remote work and remote communications. “If your firm doesn’t have that flexibility, they risk being left behind,” Hoose says. “Flexible work arrangements improve a company’s effectiveness and morale. It’s one of the best uses of today’s IT.”
Newsgroups and discussion forums. These popular mediums once served as portals where questions were raised from the team and answers were provided in a question-and-answer format. Better alternatives, Hoose says, are options like Facebook, Hangouts or Slack. “The format is far more intuitive and user-friendly with social media pages than with conventional discussion forums,” he says. “Also, multiple answers can be handled easily with social-media pages.”
Unnecessary complexity. Hoose says an overly complex structure is the core failing of legacy systems. “Rethink your architecture and prioritize for simplicity,” he says. “When modernizing your systems, less is more in terms of both architecture and functionality. You can start by implementing only the most important features. Make sure the new application will work well with the rest of the tools used in your business by default. Whatever applications you choose, make sure you use a solid and future-ready technology stack to deliver optimal performance.”
“Many executives are unsure, or even unaware, of the risk that obsolescence presents to their technology portfolios,” Hoose says. “Their uncertainty stems from not having the right data and dealing with conflicting points of view on priority, value, and risk.”
About Chris Hoose
Chris Hoose (www.choosenetworks.com) is the president of Choose Networks, an IT consulting firm for small businesses. Hoose started the company in 2001 to give large-scale solutions and support to businesses that can’t afford their own in-house IT department. He earned a Master of Information Systems Management from Friends University.
