Cold a harbinger of severe winter to come
By Dr. Joel Glass and Tom Harris
The past week has certainly been rough on people across eastern North America. The Washington Post reported on Nov. 13 that “The most severe early November cold snap in more than a century has plowed over the East Coast, where record low temperatures were set in the majority of population centers Wednesday morning.”
Weather.com reported that over 400 daily cold records were set since the cold flowed into the continental US on Sunday. They also noted that it has already become colder in the Deep South than at any time observed there last winter.
Cities setting low temperature records this week (winter does not officially start until Dec 21) included those in both the eastern US and Canada:
· Chicago: 7 degrees F
· Nashville: 17 degrees F
· New York City: 23 degrees F
· Toronto: -13.9 degrees C (previous record was -9.6 degrees C (1986))
· Windsor: -15.8 C (previous record -10 degrees C (1873))
· Kingston: -16.2 degrees C (previous record -8.2 degrees C (1983))
All this is just a warning of what is yet to come this winter, according to the Farmers’ Almanac, which bases their predictions on more than two centuries of experience in meteorology, climatology and mathematical models.
The managing editor of Almanac Version 1 (founded 1792) summed it up: "We're using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It's going to be very cold.”
Version 2 of the Almanac (founded 1818) agrees. “We expect yet another wild ride this winter,” editor Peter Geiger said, “with extreme temperatures swings and some hefty snowfalls.”
The coming winter is described by version 2 as a “polar coaster” for about 70% of the US.
According to the Almanac, which has been reliable in recent winter forecasts, the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area could expect temperatures dropping to -40 degrees (F and C are the same at this level).
Yet the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s climate body (Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predict that the 2019-2020 winter will be warmer than usual. NOAA wrote on October 17th, “Warmer-than-average temperatures are forecast for much of the U.S. this winter... below-average temperatures are not favored.”
So, who should we believe, the cold winter predicted by the Farmers’ Almanac or the mild one forecast by GISS and NOAA?
The problem with any prognostications from GISS and NOAA is that they are government bodies still controlled by entrenched bureaucrats appointed during previous administrations, all of whom promoted the politically-correct man-made climate change hypothesis. Consequently, warming or cooling, droughts or floods, it makes no difference. They will work to find every way possible to convince the public of the dangerous warming to come.
By contrast, the Farmers’ Almanac has a track record of accuracy and honesty in climate forecasting so American farmers have long depended on the skill and accuracy of its seasonal forecasts. These forecasts have to be right. If they are not, farmers who depend on it could suffer significant financial losses and the Almanac would lose financial support from buyers and advertisers. Consequently, the Farmer's Almanac cannot afford to entertain any political bias whatsoever.
Quite different to the Almanac, GISS and NOAA face no consequences for inaccurate or fabricated science and forecasts. Those who put their faith in GISS/NASA forecasts certainly do however. For example, the state of Illinois is preparing for global warming by putting the few obsolete snow plows they have into storage based on the NOAA’s mild weather prediction, while both Almanacs project Illinois to have part of the state “frigid and snowy” and the other part “frozen and snowy”.
So far this year, the Almanacs have been right on target.
The reason for the present and coming cold is of course a weak Sun. Recent research indicates that the Sun is the primary climate controller. This is a serious concern since we are approaching a super grand solar minimum when all the cycles of the Sun are expected to hit rock bottom about mid-century.
It's not going to be like Hollywood disaster films of ice ages in New York City, but it's going to be cold, with consequences for water, electric power, transportation, and agricultural infrastructure. Very few American cities currently have the equipment to keep the roads and highways open in an extended cold period.
Rather than waste billions of dollars trying to control climate, we need to prepare for the extreme cold that nature will likely be throwing at us in the decades to come.
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Dr. Joel Glass is an engineer working in the field of water infrastructure for ultra-cold climate environments. He is the author of ICE AGE 2025. Tom Harris is Executive Director of the International Climate Science Coalition.
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USDA Issues Second Tranche of Market Facilitation Program
(Washington, D.C., November 15, 2019) – U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue today announced the second tranche of 2019 Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments aimed at assisting farmers suffering from damage due to unjustified trade retaliation by foreign nations. The payments will begin the week before Thanksgiving. Producers of MFP-eligible commodities will now be eligible to receive 25% of the total payment expected, in addition to the 50% they have already received from the 2019 MFP.
“This second tranche of 2019 MFP payments, along with already provided disaster assistance, will give farmers, who have had a tough year due to unfair trade retaliation and natural disasters, much needed funds in time for Thanksgiving,” said Secretary Perdue. “President Trump has shown time and again that he is fighting for America’s farmers and ranchers. While we continue to have confidence in the President’s negotiations with China, this money shows President Trump following through on his promise to help and support farmers as he continues to fight for fair market access.”
Background on USDA’s Support Package for Farmers:
President Donald J. Trump directed Secretary Perdue to craft a second relief strategy to support American agricultural producers while the Administration continues to work on free, fair, and reciprocal trade deals to open more markets to help American farmers compete globally. Specifically, the President authorized the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to provide up to $16 billion in programs, which is in line with the estimated impacts of unjustified retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods and other trade disruptions. In May, Secretary Perdue announced these actions to assist farmers in response to trade damage from unjustified retaliation and trade disruption:
Details Regarding Second tranche of 2019 MFP Payments:
MFP signup at local FSA offices will run through Friday, December 6, 2019.
Payments will be made by the Farm Service Agency (FSA) under the authority of the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) Charter Act to producers of alfalfa hay, barley, canola, corn, crambe, dried beans, dry peas, extra-long staple cotton, flaxseed, lentils, long grain and medium grain rice, millet, mustard seed, oats, peanuts, rapeseed, rye, safflower, sesame seed, small and large chickpeas, sorghum, soybeans, sunflower seed, temperate japonica rice, triticale, upland cotton, and wheat. MFP assistance for these non-specialty crops is based on a single county payment rate multiplied by a farm’s total plantings of MFP-eligible crops in aggregate in 2019. Those per-acre payments are not dependent on which of these crops are planted in 2019. A producer’s total payment-eligible plantings cannot exceed total 2018 plantings. County payment rates range from $15 to $150 per acre, depending on the impact of unjustified trade retaliation in that county.
Dairy producers who were in business as of June 1, 2019, will receive a per hundredweight payment on Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) production history, and hog producers will receive a payment based on the number of live hogs owned on a day selected by the producer between April 1 and May 15, 2019.
MFP payments will also be made to producers of almonds, cranberries, cultivated ginseng, fresh grapes, fresh sweet cherries, hazelnuts, macadamia nuts, pecans, pistachios, and walnuts. Each specialty crop will receive a payment based on 2019 acres of fruit or nut bearing plants, or in the case of ginseng, based on harvested acres in 2019.
Acreage of non-specialty crops and cover crops had to be planted by August 1, 2019 to be considered eligible for MFP payments.
Per-acre non-specialty crop county payment rates, specialty crop payment rates, and livestock payment rates are all currently available on farmers.gov.
This is the second of up to three tranches of MFP payments. The third tranche will be evaluated as market conditions and trade opportunities dictate. If conditions warrant, the third tranche will be made in January 2020. The first tranche was comprised of the higher of either 50 percent of a producer’s calculated payment or $15 per acre, which may reduce potential payments to be made in tranche three. USDA will begin making the second tranche payments the week before Thanksgiving.
MFP payments are limited to a combined $250,000 for non-specialty crops per person or legal entity. MFP payments are also limited to a combined $250,000 for dairy and hog producers and a combined $250,000 for specialty crop producers. However, no applicant can receive more than $500,000. Eligible applicants must also have an average adjusted gross income (AGI) for tax years 2015, 2016, and 2017 of less than $900,000 unless at least 75 percent of the person’s or legal entity’s AGI is derived from farming, ranching, or forestry related activities. Applicants must also comply with the provisions of the Highly Erodible Land and Wetland Conservation regulations.
Many producers were affected by natural disasters this spring, such as flooding, that kept them out of the field for extended periods of time. Producers who filed a prevented planting claim and planted an FSA-certified cover crop, with the potential to be harvested qualify for a $15 per acre payment. Acres that were never planted in 2019 are not eligible for an MFP payment.
In June, H.R. 2157, the Additional Supplemental Appropriations for Disaster Relief Act of 2019, was signed into law by President Trump, requiring a change to the first round of MFP assistance provided in 2018. Producers previously deemed ineligible for MFP in 2018 because they had an average AGI level higher than $900,000 may now be eligible for 2018 MFP benefits. Those producers must be able to verify 75 percent or more of their average AGI was derived from farming and ranching to qualify. This supplemental MFP signup period will run parallel to the 2019 MFP signup, from July 29 through December 6, 2019.
For more information on the MFP, visit www.farmers.gov/mfp or contact your local FSA office, which can be found at www.farmers.gov.
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USDA Announces its Intent to Ensure Adequate Sugar Supply
(Washington, D.C., November 15, 2019) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) today announced that it fully intends to take appropriate actions to ensure an adequate supply of sugar to the U.S. market.
In recent weeks, prospects for U.S. sugar production have declined significantly due to adverse weather in both sugar beet and sugarcane regions. In the November 2019 World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates Report, the U.S. sugar production projection declined by 572,000 short tons raw value from the previous month, while ongoing weather concerns threaten further reductions. With a 10.5 percent ending stocks-to-use ratio forecast for FY20, USDA will be addressing options in the near future in order to stabilize U.S. sugar supplies.
USDA intends to make an announcement between November 18 and December 10 as to quantity, type and source of additional sugar needed to ensure an adequate supply for the domestic market, avoid forfeitures and prevent or correct market disruptions.
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USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer and lender.
Hello, members of the media!
We are excited to announce Utah Geological Survey's new calendar that features scenic photos from Utah and this year, the calendar also comes with an interactive story for each location! Follow the press release and photos below for more information:
PRESS RELEASE: 2020 CALENDAR OF UTAH GEOLOGY TAKES VIEWERS ON AN INTERACTIVE JOURNEY.
Salt Lake City, UT – Join the Utah Geological Survey for a geologic adventure across Utah, beginning January 2020. The Calendar of Utah Geology features awe-inspiring photos of unique scenery and diverse geology, as well as a little something extra—the opportunity to explore each destination further through an online interactive story, which is new addition to the calendar.
As the year unfolds and a new calendar photo revealed, viewers are invited online to take a deeper look at the geology of that region. New stories released each month will provide details such as geologic maps, additional photos and video, or history of geologic processes that shaped the landscape. Examples of geologic topics include geologic formations, Great Salt Lake, microbialites, and ancient deserts. Discover some of the fascinating chapters in Utah’s geologic story through the 2020 Calendar of Utah Geology. Click here to take a look inside.
The Calendar of Utah Geology creates an engaging way to travel across the state and enjoy Utah’s beautiful landscapes year-round. It also showcases a beautiful collection of photos taken by UGS employees and geologists in the field, who are often on assignment in some of the state’s most interesting and unique locations.
The Calendar of Utah Geology is available now at the Natural Resources Map & Bookstore for $5.95 each or special pricing of $4.95 for orders of 10 or more. Pick yours up at 1594 West North Temple in Salt Lake City or order online.
This 14th edition of the popular UGS Calendar of Utah Geology has been very well received. The quality photography and accompanying geologic descriptions have garnered complimentary feedback from industry professionals and others. Here is what one viewer had to say about the 2020 calendar:
“We certainly live in a stunningly beautiful place. Every year I see the calendar and think it cannot get more beautiful than this… and then it does.”
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Media Contact:
Jen Miller, UGS Publications Manager
801-537-3330 | jlmiller@utah.gov
The Natural Resources Map & Bookstore:
1594 West North Temple, Salt Lake City, Utah 84116
(801) 537-3320 | 1-888-UTAHMAP | utahmapstore.com
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Utah native creates innovative Cruise of Thrones excursions that will visit HBO’s Game of Thrones filming sights throughout Europe in 2021
(ATLANTA, GA.) – The upcoming Cruise of Thrones visits to HBO’s Game of Thrones (GOT) filming sites throughout Europe are being touted as the ultimate GOT fan event by the Utah native who created the innovative excursions.
“Cruise of Thrones is the ultimate fan event for those who want to vacation with their favorite passion – Game of Thrones,” said Lynette Durovic, a native of Bountiful, UT, former Salt Lake City resident and owner of Atlanta, GA-based Dalmatian Travel & Events. “We imagined and developed an experience like nothing you’ve ever seen before.”
As an avid GOT fan with more than 23 years experience in the travel industry, Durovic, a 1986 graduate of Bountiful High School, believed in the idea of the ultimate GOT fan event when she conceived of a special cruise that would celebrate all things Game of Thrones.
When the initial cruise launches in September 2021, two cruises – an eight-day northern cruise to Iceland, Ireland and Northern Ireland and an eight-day southern cruise to Spain, Malta and Croatia, otherwise known as Dorne, Essos and King’s Landing -- will actually be part of the agenda. Participants will be able to sail both cruises back-to-back for what’s being billed as The Known World Ultimate Cruise; a deal that includes a free side trip to see the steps of Dragonstone near Bilbao, Spain.
GOT aficionados will no doubt recognize the names and places for each filming location.
In Iceland visit the Fist of the First Men, the Bloody Gate and Jon & Ygritte’s cave. While in Ireland check out The Wall, Castle Black, Hardhome, Winterfell, Pyke, the King’s Road and more. In Spain it’s a welcome to Dorne where travelers can see Sunspear and the Water Gardens, the Tower of Joy, the Citadel and the Long Bridge of Volantis. The Malta experience offers a visit to the first home of King’s Landing. Visit where Ned Stark enters the city in Season 1, then venture to Mdina to see more of the seat of Aegon the Conquerer. Of course Dubrovnik, Croatia offers the main filming location for the splendid Kings Landing.
Durovic readily admits that the Cruise of Thrones will offer the most daunting business challenge she’s faced; however, given her family tradition of business success coupled with her business savvy, creativity, imagination, her faith and business guidance handed down over generations that should not be an issue.
From her grandfather, who started out penniless but became a bank owner, to all of his descendants -- that includes his children, to all five of Durovic’s siblings, her three children -- and her husband all became business owners. That family tradition also provided Durovic a recipe for success in business – working to making a positive difference in the lives of others and that 90 percent of success is buckling down and doing the work.
Durovic moved to New York City as a 19 year old. After working on the 97th floor of the World Trade Center and getting married to a Croatian man, she moved to Salt Lake City then to Atlanta, where she worked for Delta Airlines. World travel with her family marked a magical five years. That period along with an opportunity to help others – people from Croatia coming to the U.S. as refugees seeking travel advice about going home to visit -- served as inspiration for Durovic to start her own travel agency.
“Our business brings happiness to people one way or the other,” Durovic said. “We enhance the positive or relieve the sadness. Any good you can do for others is important.”
For more information about the Cruise of Thrones visit https://cruiseofthrones.com/, email info@cruiseofthrones.com or call 770-253-3364.
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Hi, Jim-
For some this will be their first holiday season after a cancer diagnosis and for Amy of Salt Lake City that news came at a time when her family had cause to celebrate more than just toys in their stockings. Amy was diagnosed with HER2+ breast cancer during the second trimester of her pregnancy; immediately she and her husband understood that they were in for a tough road ahead. The news came as a shock to their five young daughters, who expressed feelings of extreme fear and apprehension.
At 18 weeks pregnant Amy underwent a procedure to have her tumors surgically removed, followed by a mastectomy, and reconstruction of her left breast. After a few weeks of recovery, Amy was sent to Utah Cancer Specialists to begin her chemotherapy treatments.
“Everything concerned me, but as any woman would be, I was concerned about hair loss,” Amy said. “I knew I was sick, but I didn’t want to look sick. Not only because I didn’t want people to know, but because I worried what the girls would think.” Amy’s husband, who also served as her primary caregiver, found the answer to his wife’s prayers in Dr. Litton of UCS in Murray. Dr. Litton recommended the couple try using Dignicap, the scalp cooling system that gives patients the ability to keep their hair through chemotherapy.
This holiday season, give the gift of self-identity, privacy, and strength by simply spreading the word about Dignicap to those who are affected by cancer or know someone who is. This machine-powered scalp cooling system has received FDA-clearance so that patients undergoing prostate, stomach, ovarian or other solid tumor cancers could also use the treatments. We’re happy to connect you with Amy, who was able to keep most of her hair throughout chemotherapy, or a representative from Dignicap who can provide further insight into how this revolutionary technology works to reduce hair loss in cancer patients.
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Dear Editor:
Please consider this insightful and exceedingly helpful analysis of the Trump foreign policy by Dr. Mel Gurtov. In a phrase, it's callous greed. For PeaceVoice, thank you,
Tom Hastings
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Getting rid of treacherous friends
by Mel Gurtov
942 words
Backing the wrong horse, again
The United States has a long record of befriending the wrong people—authoritarian leaders who rely on military and police power to enforce social inequality and dictatorial rule. Washington’s usual justification is promoting the national interest, meaning either strategic or economic advantage rather than human interest concerns. That transparently false argument eventually catches up with an administration as the ally commits enough outrages to weaken support even among hardliners in Washington. Past US administrations sometimes reacted by promoting regime change or outright abandonment, for example the removals of Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines, Ngo Dinh Diem and Nguyen Van Thieu in Vietnam, Juan Bosch in the Dominican Republic, and the Somoza family in Nicaragua.
Today, dancing with dictators is again in fashion, but now for personal no less than for political or economic gain. Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are among the beneficiaries of Trump’s tolerance, for which he is well rewarded. It’s time to ditch these regimes, along with their DC lobbyists and other supporters. Reportedly, John Bolton, hardly an exemplary diplomat, couldn't tolerate Trump’s policy-for-profit foreign policy. But his critique only addresses one element of that policy. The other elements are use of “family” members (in the Mafia sense of the word) to conduct sensitive foreign relations, and the rejection of these countries’ authoritarian politics as a factor in policy making.
Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, should be a prime candidate for abandonment. First off, it’s a family affair: As the New York Times recently reported, Trump and Jared Kushner have developed personal relationships with Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law, Turkey’s finance minister, and the son-in-law of a Turkish tycoon who does business with the Trump Organization. As with Kushner’s personal ties with Saudi strongman Mohammad bin Salman, the pocketbook trumps national interests. The Turks and the Trumps agree that backdoor diplomacy is much more productive than relying on the “deep state.” That way, the Erdogan regime has a free pass to avoid NATO and US sanctions and Trump has a channel for avoiding having to impose them—and conducting profitable business such as the Trump Towers Istanbul.
Erdogan clearly has Trump’s sympathy when it comes to repression of human rights. As the Washington Post editorialized on November 5, following the 2016 coup attempt against Erdogan, “the . . . dragnet was wide: According to Turkish accounts, 189 media outlets were shut and 319 journalists arrested, of whom 180 are still detailed; more than 6,000 academics lost their jobs; 4,463 judges and prosecutors were dismissed; and some 3,000 schools and universities shut down. Since the purge, Mr. Erdogan has further tightened his grip.” This is the same Erdogan who stood up for Jamal Khashoggi after he was murdered by Saudi henchmen of bin Salman. But Erdogan is no hero. That move was obviously motivated by a chance to undermine a rival regime; human rights had nothing to do with it.
Trump and Erdogan share a particular distaste for journalists. “Turkey, which has the worst record of jailing journalists in the world, according to a report early this year from the Committee to Protect Journalists. Turkey, which recently issued a statement banning critical reports on its military adventures in northern Syria. Turkey, which combs through the lives of imprisoned journalists with authoritarian vigor” (Erik Wemple in the Washington Post).
When Trump hosted a meeting in the White House November 13 between Erdogan and five senior Republican senators, they avoided those human rights issues altogether. Their main concern was Turkey’s purchase of a Russian S-400 missile defense system. Instead, they heard Erdogan predict $100 billion in bilateral trade (really?), and then listened to him denounce the Kurds as “terrorist organizations.” Reportedly, it was an Erdogan propaganda show. Unfazed, Trump said: “We’ll work out something with Turkey.” Of course they will, “something” that will mean further abandoning the Kurds while ignoring Erdogan’s repressive regime. I wouldn’t be surprised if Erdogan tries to appease congress and the Pentagon by agreeing to a new arms purchase from the US to offset senators’ unhappiness over the S-400 sale and their threat to impose sanctions. But don't count on Trump to reimpose sanctions no matter what. Just as happened with Saudi Arabia following the Khashoggi affair, Trump will ignore the criticisms in favor of his "friend." That's the way crony capitalists deal.
Cutting Out Turkey
Does the US need Turkey? Clearly not while it is under the thumb of a vicious autocrat. What, after all, has Turkey contributed to the national interests of the US? A bulwark of democratic values? Like Putin, Erdogan believes “Western liberalism” is dying. Like Trump, Erdogan is an unapologetic white nationalist. A major economic partner? Hardly; total trade came to about $20 billion in 2018. A force for NATO or peace prospects in the Middle East? Erdogan is at odds with NATO and with most Middle East governments, including Saudi Arabia as well as Israel. Fact is, Erdogan’s Turkey is serving Russian interests more than he’s serving US or European interests, as his intervention in Syria shows.
It is naïve to believe that the Erdogan regime’s behavior can be moderated or its foreign policy brought into line with European priorities. Withdrawing support from him might galvanize Turkey’s democratic opposition, reverse the current US betrayal of the Kurds, and put the US on the path of disassociating from dictators. To be sure, Russia will take advantage of the US ditching Erdogan, but so what? Let Putin see if he can work with Erdogan over the long haul. He will have to figure out what others never have, namely, that becoming dominant players in another country’s affairs invites nationalist blowback.
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Mel Gurtov, syndicated by PeaceVoice, is Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University.
