Large Nations Change the Climate, Small Islands Pay
By Hugh Sealy
Ten thousand people in the Pacific nation of Tuvalu are facing a threat many Americans have never fathomed -- their land could soon be underwater.
Tuvalu is not alone. Island nations around the world are at risk of their economies -- and lands -- washing away. Worse, they've had no say in the matter. They account for less than 1 percent of the world population -- and produce less than 1 percent of the greenhouse gases generated by humans.
It's unjust to force small island nations to pay for the climate sins of the developed world. Rich countries created this mess. They're the only ones who can prevent a looming humanitarian and economic catastrophe in small-island states.
A surge in global temperatures has led to a rise in sea levels -- particularly near island nations. Many nations in the Western Pacific are seeing 12 millimeter increases annually -- about four times the global average. French Polynesia and New Caledonia could be submerged within a century.
Tropical cyclones, floods, and chronic droughts are also increasingly common for island nations.
These effects of climate change strain the island economies dependent on tourism. If the sea level rises 50 centimeters in Grenada, where I live, nearly two-thirds of beaches will disappear. Grenada is already expecting to spend up to $1.1 billion -- about 100 percent of its GDP -- over the next 30 years repairing resorts.
In Puerto Rico, rising sea levels and extreme weather could lead to $1 billion in lost tourism revenue every year by 2100. Barbados expects to spend up to $368 million annually by 2050 rebuilding tourism facilities destroyed by climate change.
Climate change also threatens island nations' ability to feed themselves. In Fiji, droughts and diminished soil fertility could cost the country up to $52 million per year by 2050.
Island nations aren't waiting for the developed world to bail them out. Some are considering systems of concrete blocks to protect coastal areas from larger waves , or constructing agricultural systems more resilient to extreme weather.
It's bad enough that these nations are suffering the consequences of a crisis they did little to create. They shouldn't have to respond to that crisis alone.
The developed world must do its part. Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly 200 countries have committed to a long term global temperature goal of keeping warming below 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius.
But many countries have not sufficiently committed to reducing their own emissions. The next round of emissions-reductions contributions from major emitters, due in 2020, must be much stronger.
The developed world also needs to meet its stated goal of providing at least $100 billion annually by 2020 to assist developing countries to mitigate and adapt to the consequences of climate change.
The short-term effects of climate change might seem minor to the largest, wealthiest countries. However, without aggressive action, global warming could leave many island economies -- and, nations -- submerged.
Hugh Sealy is a professor in the Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine at St. George's University in Grenada. He has been a lead negotiator for small island states since 2008, including at the historic COP 21 in Paris and at the COP22 Summit in Morocco.
